The Slovenian economy enjoyed a surprising positive blip in economic indicators in October, with merchandise exports growing 6.4% year-on-year (y/y) in nominal euro terms, helping to propel total industrial activity by 6.0% y/y that same months, IHS Global Insight reported.
“If export growth begins to rally, the projected recession in Slovenia would end much quicker than we had otherwise expected. The country’s industrial sector is keenly intertwined with foreign demand given the country’s small domestic economy. However, in spite of the October uptick, we continue to expect that export demand and thus, industrial production growth will remain muted for the foreseeable future. As the Eurozone countries continue to restructure and prepare for the Greek exit, demand for added manufacturing goods will remain quite low. At home, the small domestic market will fail to add any forward momentum either given the dismal state of household consumption and gross fixed capital formation. We expect export demand to remain weak and that industrial growth rates will fall backwards from the October level in the coming month and remain tepid throughout much of 2013,” IHS says.