We were in Slovenia last week, where we met with the Finance Minister, Central Bank Governor, Bank Asset Management Company, senior politicians from coalition partners and from the opposition, senior managers at the largest local bank, as well as economists and journalists. Our trip to Slovenia coincided with a pivotal day for the country. The 2014 budget was voted on at 6am along with a confidence vote on the government. On the same day, the Finance Ministry surprised the market with a EUR 1.5bn private placement. The series of events have significant implications for our outlook on Slovenia going forward. We now have more conviction than before in our view that Slovenia can clean-up its banking sector without resorting to outside help. We also take off the possibility of early elections in May 2014 as our base case scenario. The political situation has improved markedly since our last visit at the end of March, although risks remain. For our previous trip notes and for a broader discussion of Slovenia’s banking sector developments in preceding years, see Slovenia Trip Notes | Country at a Cross-road, 28th March 2013. For now, all eyes are on the publication of the Asset Quality Review and Stress Test results. These are now not expected to be published until mid-December. We expect the first tranche of assets to be transferred from commercial banks to the Bank Asset Management Company (BAMC) in early January. When the AQR/Stress Test results are published, the key figure that the market will be looking out for will be the amount of bank recapitalisation required. Assuming a 50% increase in NPLs amongst the top three banks since the government’s own estimate was published in May, and assuming that asset transfers take place with a 75% haircut, we estimate recapitalisation costs amounting to around EUR 3.0bn. This amount will be used to cover the additional loss at transfer incurred by the banks. A somewhat higher recap may be needed depending on the extent to which the government intends to boost capital adequacy ratios beyond previous levels. We also expect the BAMC to issue EUR 1.6bn of government guaranteed deb
We were in Slovenia last week, where we met with the Finance Minister, Central Bank Governor, Bank Asset Management Company, senior politicians from coalition partners and from the opposition, senior managers at the largest local bank, as well as economists and...
SBI TOP of Ljubljana Stock Exchange index gains 1.09%
Most major shares on the Ljubljana Stock Exchange were in the black on Tuesday pushing the SBI TOP blue chip index up 1.09% to 594.05 points. The winner of the day was the NKBM bank, which added 3.39% to EUR 1.16, while the only item in the index to lose ground was...
Slovenia ranks 37th on Transparency Interantional’s 2012 list
STA – 06.12.2012 Slovenia ranks 37th among 176 countries in the 2012 Corruption Perceptions Index compiled by the Berlin-based NGO Transparency International (TI). Simona Habič of the Slovenian branch of the TI, Integriteta, told the press on Wednesday that...